Several people made some good points in regard to my article on iPad vs. Windows 8.
The most salient one, and the one I keep hearing, is the comparison to iPod. It goes like this:
Yes, Apple only garnered a minority market share with the Macintosh and the iPhone. But with the iPod, Apple was able to create and hold a substantial majority market share by establishing such a strong brand identity that “iPod” became synonymous with “portable MP3 player.” Now, the iPad seems to be holding a majority market share as well by making itself synonymous with “tablet.” Therefore we should compare its trajectory to the iPod, not the iPhone or Macintosh.
The other salient argument goes like this:
Apple has a lock on the “high end” tablet market. The iPad is better conceived, designed, and constructed than its Android or Windows counterparts. Users really aren’t that interested in a marginally lower priced machine that offers lower design / build quality, and its hard to see how other manufacturers can “out-quality” the iPad, or if users really want a “better quality” tablet than the iPad.
I like argument #2 best.
The problem with argument #1 is that it ignores the market dynamics. Macintoshes, iPhones, and iPads all have one thing in common: they are pieces of hardware running an operating system. OK, technically, this is also true of the iPod, but only technically so. The OS of the iPod is more like an embedded firmware.
Apple’s minority market position with the iPhone and Macintosh stems from the fact that the OS and hardware are coupled. Apple competes not just with Microsoft (for the OS), but with a gazillion other PC manufacturers (for the hardware). It does this with phones as well, competing not just against Android but against every phone maker that produces an Android device. So Apple can sell more PCs than any one PC maker, and more phones than any one Android manufacturer, but against the market as a whole it remains a minority player, albeit a large, powerful one.
Well, tablets are no different from phones and PCs: they are a piece of hardware running an OS, and it is a matter of time before tablet makers are able to closely copy the hardware designs of the iPad and the software advantages of iOS and release an Android tablet that competes well. Will people buy it? Yes. Android has a majority market share in phones and a compelling tablet offering will appeal to that majority.
Windows is more of a wild card here. In my previous post, I pointed to the fact that corporate IT departments will be much more likely to adopt a Windows 8 tablet than an iOS or Android tablet since it is an OS which they already support and understand. I still think this is true.
Many people countered with the argument that with HTML5, it is irrelevant which device you support. I agree but remain skeptical whether corporate IT departments will develop mission-critical wireless HTML5 applications. Corporate IT is happy with hard-wired web apps, but when it comes to running a mission-critical app over 3G or 4G networks, I think that is a far more risky proposition.
If I was asked to develop a mission critical application that ran wirelessly over a 3G or 4G network, I would almost certainly develop a “fat app” that replicated its data with the mother ship and which could run at 100% during network unavailability. And, as a corporate IT developer, I would lean heavily on Windows as the platform of choice for developing that application, especially since the odds are very strong that the company already has a sizeable investment in technologies like .NET and MS SQL server.
If (and this is a very big “if”) Microsoft can deploy a compelling tablet version of Windows before the market has saturated, I think there is a good chance that they will capture significant corporate sales. As we’ve seen in the past, inability to penetrate the corporate market was a serious impediment to Macintosh and, for a while, also the iPhone. If Microsoft can execute, this is a strong opportunity for them to stay in the game.