How to explain the problem of #coronavirus to your friends and family who believe the numbers of infected to be small and insignificant.
Viruses like coronavirus where there is no natural immunity and an R0 of 2-3 begin their lives following a curve that is very closely fitted by an exponential curve, like the lily pad. As they saturate into a population, the curve becomes sigmoid – that is, instead of curving up towards infinity, they flatten, as the virus saturates into the population.
This thought experiment is not intended to predict how quickly everyone will catch coronavirus. It is intended to demonstrate what that first phase looks like, namely: how the actual numbers can remain deceptively low until they’re suddenly shockingly high.
#StayTheFuckHome #flattenthecurve